Tour de France Stage 15: A Merciless Verdict on the Plateau de Solaison

As the second week of the Tour de France draws to a close, it offers one final, savage test before the respite of a rest day. Stage 15 is a day of transition and transformation, taking the peloton from the rolling, forested hills of the Jura to the jagged, imposing peaks of the Haute-Savoie. It is a stage of two distinct halves, lulling the riders with a gentle opening before confronting them with a triptych of Alpine climbs.

The final act is played out on the slopes of the Plateau de Solaison, an unforgiving Hors Catégorie ascent making its return to the Tour. With the yellow jersey of Tadej Pogačar seemingly welded to his shoulders, the primary battle is likely to be for the remaining steps on the podium. On a climb this steep and this long, there will be no hiding place; it is a place for pure climbers, a place where time gaps can be measured in minutes, and where the general classification will be brutally reshuffled.

The day begins in Champagnole, the ‘Pearl of the Jura’, a town whose identity is intrinsically linked to the vast forests that surround it. It’s a fittingly tranquil starting point for what will become a frantic stage. The opening 115 kilometres are deceptive, rolling through the departments of Jura and Ain with only one categorised climb to trouble the early breakaway artists. That climb, the Category 3 Côte des Rousses (6.6 km at 5.1%), arrives after 44.5 kilometres and serves as the perfect launchpad for a group of hopefuls to establish a meaningful advantage.

After a long descent and a lengthy stretch through the valley of the Rhône, the character of the stage changes abruptly as the race enters the Haute-Savoie. The Alps announce their presence with the savage Category 1 ascent of Le Salève, also known as the Col de la Croisette. Though it is only 4.6 kilometres long, its average gradient of 11.2% is punishing and will serve as a violent introduction to the day’s finale. The peloton will be significantly thinned here, and any breakaway riders will feel their advantage begin to evaporate.

A short descent is followed by another sharp kick, the Category 3 Côte du Mont (2.1 km at 8.3%), a final sting in the tail before the valley road that leads towards the day's main event. The run through Bonneville marks the final moment of calm before the peloton turns onto the slopes of the Plateau de Solaison.

The final climb is a monster. At 11.3 kilometres in length with an average gradient of a fraction under 9%, it is a pure test of climbing prowess and endurance. The gradient is relentless, offering little to no respite, and it was here at the Critérium du Dauphiné 2017 that Jakob Fuglsang overturned a deficit to Chris Froome and Richie Porte to steal the overall victory on the final day. It is a climb that rewards aggression and punishes the slightest sign of weakness, a perfect arena for the final mountain showdown of the second week.

This stage is almost guaranteed to be a tale of two races. The first will be for the stage victory, likely contested by a strong group of climbers in the breakaway. With the King of the Mountains jersey still very much in play, expect to see its virtual wearer, Valentin Paret-Peintre, and his main rival, Richard Carapaz, animate the race from the very beginning. For a breakaway to succeed, it will need to build a substantial lead of six or seven minutes before the final two climbs, as the pace in the GC group behind will be ferocious.

The second race will unfold among the overall contenders on the unforgiving slopes of the Plateau de Solaison. UAE Team Emirates-XRG have a choice to make: control the break and set up Tadej Pogačar for a fifth stage win, or allow the escapees their freedom and focus solely on marking his rivals. Given Pogačar's imperious form, the former seems entirely possible. Behind him, the fight for the podium between Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel, and the surprising Paul Seixas will ignite. With Seixas holding a slender three-second lead over Juan Ayuso in the white jersey competition, that classification will also be decided on these brutal gradients. Expect a high pace from the bottom of the climb, followed by a series of explosive attacks as each contender seeks to expose the weakness of his rivals.